Chinese hog cycle and inflation: Considering the spread of African Swine Fever (ASF), a sharp fall in the number of breeding sows, and the limited space for ramping up pork imports, we expect pork prices in this new hog cycle to peak in January 2020. China’s monthly CPI inflation could rise towards 3.0% y-o-y at end-2019, and may peak at approximately 3.3% y-o-y in January 2020, which is when the LNY holidays will occur.